How stable is the Greenland ice sheet? A view from the past

Are you passionate about climate or glaciology research and keen to tackle one of the greatest climate challenges of today? Are you keen to develop advanced research skills that can equip you for a wide range of future careers? For these reasons and more, you may be an ideal candidate to apply for a studentship with project VERIFY: Out Of Sample Testing For Early Warning Systems Using Past Climate, funded by the UK’s Advanced Research + Invention Agency (ARIA*). <br /> <br /> For this PhD, you will perform cutting-edge ice sheet simulations to test mechanisms of Greenland ice sheet collapse, evaluated against records of real events from the past, to improve predictions of when and how abrupt changes in Greenland may be triggered in the future. <br /> <br /> The fully funded scholarship is available in the School of Earth and Environment at the University of Leeds to begin in October 2025. The PhD is open to UK applicants and covers tuition fees and a maintenance stipend for three and a half years, as well as a Research Training Support Grant (RTSG) of £7,000 to fund research travel, training, conferences etc. The maintenance stipend is £20,780 in the year 2025/26.

<p><strong>Background</strong></p> <p paraeid="{0e8ec5e7-f423-411c-8817-b8c89c4093f1}{16}" paraid="931506538">One of the greatest sources of uncertainty in predictions of 21st Century sea level change is the Greenland ice sheet. Future warming will certainly increase ice sheet melting, the evidence is that it already is, but exactly how much ice will be lost, by what mechanisms and, critically, when those mechanisms will be triggered remains unknown.  </p> <p paraeid="{0e8ec5e7-f423-411c-8817-b8c89c4093f1}{62}" paraid="304321986">We know from times in the past when climate was similar or only slightly warmer than today, known as ‘interglacials’, that Greenland is capable of great resilience to warm conditions, remaining relatively stable in size during some interglacial periods. Yet during long interglacials, even moderate warming can lead to the collapse of parts of the ice sheet, causing metres of sea level rise. Finding out when and how those tipping points are crossed – the difference between maintaining a relatively constant Greenland ice volume and losing whole sectors of the ice sheet – is key to confidently predicting future Greenland evolution. The problem is that modern observations are too short and do not capture large enough changes to sufficiently test or calibrate models of ice sheet change to make sure they accurately capture Greenland ice sheet behaviour over centuries. The past interglacials offer a solution: real world data from known episodes of Greenland ice sheet collapse that can be contrasted with known periods of ice sheet stability to test and improve the models, reaching new levels of understanding, and providing the best confidence in forecasts of when and how we might cross tipping points in the Greenland ice sheet in the future. </p> <p paraeid="{0e8ec5e7-f423-411c-8817-b8c89c4093f1}{62}" paraid="304321986"><strong>The PhD</strong></p> <p paraeid="{848808e8-c6c9-45c0-b555-fad3df1115ca}{23}" paraid="2030060382">Using advanced uncertainty quantification, this project will drive state-of-the-art ice sheet models with climate output from the most detailed and complex climate models to comprehensively assess when and how Greenland tipping events are triggered. The simulations will be combined with records of Greenland ice sheet conditions during past interglacials, testing periods when the ice underwent pronounced deglaciation and contrasting these with periods when we know the ice sheet was relatively stable. </p> <p paraeid="{848808e8-c6c9-45c0-b555-fad3df1115ca}{23}" paraid="2030060382">Efficient experimental design will be used to perform strategic short simulations of the UK Earth Systems Model (UKESM, a flagship complex climate model with interactive ice sheets) and MAR (regional high resolution atmosphere model) for a range of past climatic conditions. Machine learning and/or statistical interpolation will be used to produce multi-millennia climate forcing for driving Greenland ice sheet model simulations (BISICLES) of past interglacials. Uncertain model parameters will be varied to determine which model configurations best match records of past Greenland ice sheet evolution and thus improve confidence in our projections of future change. </p> <p paraeid="{848808e8-c6c9-45c0-b555-fad3df1115ca}{23}" paraid="2030060382">These tools will be used to answer exciting research questions chosen by the postgraduate researcher with support from the project supervisors and wider VERIFY project team, for example: </p> <ul> <li paraeid="{848808e8-c6c9-45c0-b555-fad3df1115ca}{195}" paraid="269706495">Under what conditions does the Greenland ice sheet remain stable or crosses a tipping point?  </li> <li paraeid="{848808e8-c6c9-45c0-b555-fad3df1115ca}{203}" paraid="1393970265">Are the UKESM, MAR and BISICLES models able to reproduce changes in the Greenland ice sheet during past interglacials ? </li> <li paraeid="{848808e8-c6c9-45c0-b555-fad3df1115ca}{233}" paraid="427546531">How does information from past interglacials inform future sea level projections?  </li> </ul> <p paraeid="{848808e8-c6c9-45c0-b555-fad3df1115ca}{251}" paraid="1057771999">The PhD outputs will feed directly into other parts of Project VERIFY (e.g. a Digital Twins of past abrupt ice sheet and climate change, and a new early warning system for climate tipping). </p> <p paraeid="{848808e8-c6c9-45c0-b555-fad3df1115ca}{251}" paraid="1057771999"><strong>Project VERIFY</strong></p> <p paraeid="{848808e8-c6c9-45c0-b555-fad3df1115ca}{251}" paraid="1057771999">With this PhD Scholarship, you will be part of the Project VERIFY team, with access to a wide array of expertise and bespoke training. Our vision is to observe and understand massive changes (so-called tipping events) in the climate of the North Atlantic, namely the Greenland Ice Sheet and Subpolar Gyre, in the recent and geological past. Embedded in nine institutions internationally, Project VERIFY brings together experts in modern and palaeo-climate dynamics, high resolution and complexity modelling, data science and statistics, decision making and communication. The project will develop Digital Twins of these past events that will serve as a testbed for verifying whether this tipping behavior can be predicted using Early Warning Systems (EWSs), forming a crucial component of an £81m ARIA-funded effort to develop these systems in the North Atlantic region. In Project VERIFY, you will be part of a team of seven PhD students (plus postdocs and more senior researchers) working in a diverse array of disciplines, including social sciences, Earth System Modelling, ice and sediment core geochemistry, and dynamical systems and statistical analysis. As an ARIA R&D Creator, you will also benefit from involvement in the broader ‘Forecasting Tipping Points’ programme, which seeks to build an early warning system capable of providing the information, understanding and time we need to accelerate proactive climate adaptation and mitigation. As part of the Project VERIFY team, you will be at the heart of this effort, working within a network of 27 international teams in a collaborative effort to detect the earliest signs of climate tipping points.</p> <p paraeid="{11341f0f-d601-414d-bc7e-4bdaddb7458a}{162}" paraid="1011748442">*ARIA is an R&D funding agency created to unlock technological breakthroughs that benefit everyone. Created by an Act of Parliament and sponsored by the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology, ARIA fund teams of scientists and engineers to pursue research at the edge of what is scientifically and technologically possible. </p>

<p>Formal applications for research degree study should be made online through the <a href="https://www.leeds.ac.uk/research-applying/doc/applying-research-degrees">University's website</a>. You will need to create a login ID with a username and PIN. </p> <ul> <li>For ‘Application type’ please select ‘Research Degrees – Research Postgraduate’.</li> <li>The admission year for this project is 2025/2026 Academic Year. You will need to select your ‘Planned Course of Study’ from a drop-down menu.</li> <li>For this project, scroll down and select ‘PhD Earth and Environment Full-time’.</li> <li>The project start date for this project is 1st October 2025, please use this as your Proposed Start Date of Research.</li> <li>You will also need to provide: copies of certificates and transcripts for your academic qualifications; a copy of your CV and a personal statement which outlines your interest in the project you are applying for, why you have chosen it and how your skills map onto the requirements of the project. You will also need to provide two references. It is your responsibility to provide these references. More information on how to apply is available on our website <a href="https://www.leeds.ac.uk/research-applying/doc/applying-research-degrees">here</a>. </li> <li><strong>Please state clearly in the research information section that the research degree you wish to be considered for is ‘How stable is the Greenland ice sheet? A view from the past’ as well as <a href="https://environment.leeds.ac.uk/see/staff/1295/dr-lauren-gregoire">Lauren Gregoire</a> as your proposed supervisor. </strong></li> </ul> <p>If English is not your first language, you must provide evidence that you meet the University's minimum English language requirements (below).</p> <p><em>As an international research-intensive university, we welcome students from all walks of life and from across the world. We foster an inclusive environment where all can flourish and prosper, and we are proud of our strong commitment to student education. Across all Faculties we are dedicated to diversifying our community and we welcome the unique contributions that individuals can bring, and particularly encourage applications from, but not limited to Black, Asian, people who belong to a minority ethnic community, people who identify as LGBT+ and people with disabilities. Applicants will always be selected based on merit and ability.</em></p>

The minimum entry requirements for PhD study are a 2.1 honours Bachelor degree, or equivalent, or a good performance in a Master's level course in Physics, Mathematics, Oceanography, Meteorology, Climate Sciences, Earth/Environmental/Geographical Sciences, Engineering, Computer Sciences or related disciplines.<br /> <br /> Experience in computer programming (.e.g. Python, Fortran, C++, MATLAB, R...) or numerical modelling is highly desirable. Candidates with either strong/numerical programming skills or a good background in glaciology or climate science would be well suited to this project.<br /> <br /> Applicants who are uncertain about the requirements for a particular research degree are advised to contact the PGR Admissions team prior to making an application.

The minimum English language entry requirement for research postgraduate research study is an IELTS of 6.0 overall with at least 5.5 in each component (reading, writing, listening and speaking) or equivalent. The test must be dated within two years of the start date of the course in order to be valid. Some schools and faculties have a higher requirement.

<p><strong>Information about the Award</strong></p> <p>We are offering 1 full-time PhD scholarship in the School of Earth and Environment for one UK candidate, covering a maintenance grant matching UKRI maintenance stipend (£20,780 per year in 2025/26) and UK tuition fees for three and a half years, as well as a Research Training Support Grant (RTSG) of £7,000, subject to satisfactory progress.</p> <p><strong>Duration of the Award</strong></p> <p>Full-time (3.5 years). The award will be made for one year in the first instance and renewable for a further period of up to two years, subject to satisfactory academic progress. </p> <p><strong>Other Conditions</strong></p> <ul> <li>Applicants must not have already been awarded or be currently studying for a doctoral degree. </li> <li>Awards must be taken up by 1st October 2025. </li> <li>Applicants must live within a reasonable distance of the University of Leeds whilst in receipt of this scholarship.</li> </ul> <p><strong>If you are unsure whether you are eligible for Home fees/funding, please see our <a href="https://www.leeds.ac.uk/undergraduate-fees/doc/fee-assessment">fee assessment page</a>.</strong></p>

<p>For further information please contact Lauren Gregoire (<a href="mailto:L.J.Gregoire@leeds.ac.uk">L.J.Gregoire@leeds.ac.uk</a>) or the Postgraduate Research Admissions team (<a href="mailto:env-pgr@leeds.ac.uk?subject=%E2%80%8BBack%20to%20the%20Future%3A%20Ice%20Sheet%20collapse%2C%20ocean%20circulation%20slowdown%20and%20abrupt%20climate%20change">env-pgr@leeds.ac.uk</a>).</p>